“An important aspect to improving the odds of making good choices is to recognize when the odds are in our favor.”
There’s a lot of interesting stuff to be learned in the recent HBO documentary Becoming Warren Buffet, but one of the bits that stuck with me was Buffet’s explanation of how he adapted Ted Williams’ approach to batting into his approach to decision making.
Shane Parrish does a nice job of summarizing it in this post which details how Buffet makes decisions by focusing on his circle of competence — an area in which he’s capable of understanding with a high degree of probability the relevant variables and likely outcome.
It’s similar to how Williams recognized he was most likely to get a hit if he swung at pitches in a certain area of the strike zone, so he waited for those pitches to swing. Williams first explained that philosophy in The Science of Hitting.